BAL @ PIT — 4th & Data

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HC John Harbaugh

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HC Mike Tomlin

Sunday 2024-11-17 · 13:00 Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

BAL

66.6%

PIT

33.4%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

BAL offense: +0.293 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
Lamar Jackson (BAL): +0.334 EPA/dropback in prior starts
PIT defense: -0.072 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
PIT offense: +0.038 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
BAL defense: +0.070 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
BAL on 3 more days rest than PIT

Predicted Final Score

BAL 27

–

PIT 21

Projected margin: BAL by 6 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

BAL

Eddie Jackson S Out Not injury related - other

Arthur Maulet CB Out Calf

Travis Jones DT Questionable Ankle

PIT

C.J. Henderson CB Out Neck

Alex Highsmith LB Out Ankle

MyCole Pruitt TE Doubtful Knee

Cory Trice CB Questionable nan

Jaylen Warren RB Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 16

–

PIT 18

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 10:43 FG PIT (10:43) 9-C.Boswell 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman. BAL 0 – PIT 3
Q2 07:44 FG PIT (7:44) 9-C.Boswell 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman. BAL 0 – PIT 6
Q2 01:19 TD BAL (1:19) 66-B.Cleveland reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – PIT 6
Q2 00:10 FG PIT (:10) 9-C.Boswell 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman. BAL 7 – PIT 9
Q3 10:51 FG PIT (10:51) 9-C.Boswell 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman. BAL 7 – PIT 12
Q3 06:17 FG BAL (6:17) 9-J.Tucker 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 10 – PIT 12
Q3 00:59 FG PIT (:59) 9-C.Boswell 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman. BAL 10 – PIT 15
Q4 03:40 FG PIT (3:40) 9-C.Boswell 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman. BAL 10 – PIT 18
Q4 01:11 TD BAL (1:11) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 4-Z.Flowers for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 16 – PIT 18

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 PIT 4th & 8 at the 14

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%

(10:43) 9-C.Boswell 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.
Q1 BAL 4th & 10 at the 70

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(8:48) 11-J.Stout punts 70 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.
Q1 PIT 4th & 6 at the 76

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46%

(7:00) 8-C.Waitman punts 51 yards to BAL 25, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-42-J.Pierre.
Q1 BAL 4th & 6 at the 29

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 43% p(FG) 81%

(5:14) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Q1 PIT 4th & 1 at the 54

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 72%

(3:12) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 22-N.Harris left tackle to PIT 46 for no gain (14-K.Hamilton).
Q1 BAL 4th & 11 at the 32

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 76%

(1:42) 9-J.Tucker 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Q2 PIT 4th & 20 at the 70

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27%

(15:00) 8-C.Waitman punts 52 yards to BAL 18, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 16-T.Wallace to BAL 31 for 13 yards (42-J.Pierre). PENALTY on BAL-28-S.Kane, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 27.
Q2 BAL 4th & 6 at the 53

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP

p(convert) 46% p(FG) 25%

(12:38) 11-J.Stout punts 37 yards to PIT 16, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.
Q2 PIT 4th & 8 at the 34

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 72%

(7:44) 9-C.Boswell 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.
Q2 BAL 4th & 11 at the 71

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(6:19) 11-J.Stout punts 49 yards to PIT 22, Center-46-N.Moore. 19-C.Austin pushed ob at PIT 31 for 9 yards (23-T.Simpson; 54-K.Welch).
Q2 PIT 4th & 12 at the 71

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(5:17) 8-C.Waitman punts 71 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.
Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 61

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP

p(convert) 73%

(:46) 8-C.Waitman punts 52 yards to BAL 9, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.
Q2 PIT 4th & 10 at the 14

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

(:10) 9-C.Boswell 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.
Q3 PIT 4th & 1 at the 39

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.90 EP

p(convert) 70% p(FG) 60%

(10:51) 9-C.Boswell 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.
Q3 BAL 4th & 10 at the 36

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 67%

(6:17) 9-J.Tucker 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Q3 PIT 4th & 7 at the 9

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%

(:59) 9-C.Boswell 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.
Q4 BAL 4th & 13 at the 89

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(14:33) 11-J.Stout punts 61 yards to PIT 28, Center-46-N.Moore. 19-C.Austin to PIT 32 for 4 yards (16-T.Wallace; 88-C.Kolar).
Q4 PIT 4th & 10 at the 32 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32% p(FG) 76%

(3:40) 9-C.Boswell 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.