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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 61

Pittsburgh Steelers 6 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(:46) 8-C.Waitman punts 52 yards to BAL 9, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.42 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 61, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 20, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP