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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 39

Pittsburgh Steelers 9 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(10:51) 9-C.Boswell 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +1.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.47 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 39, worth -1.96 EP
KICK -0.03 EP
What Happened
  • 60% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 48, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.90 EP