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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 32

Pittsburgh Steelers 15 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(3:40) 9-C.Boswell 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.07 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 32, worth -1.28 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 42, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model