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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 13 at the 89

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 15

What Actually Happened

(14:33) 11-J.Stout punts 61 yards to PIT 28, Center-46-N.Moore. 19-C.Austin to PIT 32 for 4 yards (16-T.Wallace; 88-C.Kolar).

The Three Options

GO -2.89 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.70 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 89, worth -5.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 46, worth -2.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model