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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 70

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(8:48) 11-J.Stout punts 70 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.69 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 70, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model