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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 14

Pittsburgh Steelers 6 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(:10) 9-C.Boswell 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +4.51 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 14, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.90 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24, worth -0.05 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model