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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 54

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(3:12) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 22-N.Harris left tackle to PIT 46 for no gain (14-K.Hamilton).

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.90 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 54, worth -2.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 16, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model