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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 29

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(5:14) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.25 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.62 EP
KICK +0.65 EP
What Happened
  • 81% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 39, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model