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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 71

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6

What Actually Happened

(6:19) 11-J.Stout punts 49 yards to PIT 22, Center-46-N.Moore. 19-C.Austin pushed ob at PIT 31 for 9 yards (23-T.Simpson; 54-K.Welch).

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.87 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model