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Atlanta Falcons

HC Raheem Morris
@
DEN Home

Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2024-11-17 · 16:05 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

ATL
52.4%
DEN
47.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: +0.094 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • QB edge to ATL: Bo Nix (DEN) -0.081 vs Kirk Cousins (ATL) +0.186 EPA/dropback
  • DEN defense: -0.115 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • ATL defense: +0.065 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • DEN offense: -0.029 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ATL 22
–
DEN 20
Projected margin: ATL by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

ATL

Dee Alford CB Out Hamstring
J.D. Bertrand LB Out Concussion
Ta'Quon Graham DE Out Pectoral
Antonio Hamilton CB Out Pectoral
Mike Hughes CB Out Neck
James Smith-Williams DE Out Tibia
Charlie Woerner TE Out Concussion
Troy Andersen LB Out Knee
Lorenzo Carter LB Questionable Concussion
Drew Dalman C Questionable Ankle

DEN

Josh Reynolds WR Out Hand
Drew Sanders LB Out Achilles
Delarrin Turner-Yell S Out Knee
Brandon Jones S Questionable Abdomen

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 6
–
DEN 38

Prediction missed by 34 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:36 TD DEN (10:36) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 45-N.Adkins for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – DEN 6
  • Q1 01:37 FG ATL (1:37) 6-Y.Koo 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 3 – DEN 7
  • Q2 06:25 TD DEN (6:25) 33-J.Williams left tackle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 3 – DEN 13
  • Q2 02:53 FG ATL (2:53) 6-Y.Koo 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 6 – DEN 14
  • Q2 00:30 TD DEN (:30) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 19-M.Mims for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – DEN 20
  • Q3 09:09 TD DEN (9:09) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 16-T.Franklin for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – DEN 27
  • Q4 13:12 FG DEN (13:12) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. ATL 6 – DEN 31
  • Q4 09:12 TD DEN (9:12) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 84-L.Humphrey for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – DEN 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 17 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 89%

    (1:37) 6-Y.Koo 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:11) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to ATL 19, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 26-A.Williams to ATL 31 for 12 yards (48-M.Fraboni; 34-J.Skinner). PENALTY on ATL-51-D.Malone, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 31.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 17 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (12:38) 13-B.Pinion punts 59 yards to DEN 17, Center-49-L.McCullough. 19-M.Mims to DEN 23 for 6 yards (26-A.Williams).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (4:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep right to 5-D.London to DEN 35 for 26 yards (29-J.McMillian).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 74%

    (2:53) 6-Y.Koo 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (13:53) 13-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to DEN 18, Center-49-L.McCullough. 19-M.Mims pushed ob at ATL 45 for 37 yards (55-K.Elliss).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 3 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 60%

    (12:12) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short middle to 84-L.Humphrey (3-J.Bates). The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 84-L.Humphrey to ATL 29 for 9 yards (3-J.Bates; 35-N.Brooks). FUMBLES (3-J.Bates), and recovers at ATL 30.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 10 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 46%

    (5:44) 9-R.Dixon punts 37 yards to ATL 6, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-1-T.Smith.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 14 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:51) 13-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to DEN 32, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 7 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 83%

    (13:12) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 18 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (11:25) 13-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to DEN 27, Center-49-L.McCullough. 19-M.Mims ran ob at DEN 41 for 14 yards (51-D.Malone; 0-L.Carter).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 2 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 49%

    (7:16) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 12-K.Hodge to DEN 38 for 4 yards (21-R.Moss, 42-Z.Cunningham).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 18 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 38%

    (5:06) 13-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to DEN 4, impetus ends at DEN 1, Center-49-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-49-L.McCullough.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 87 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (3:14) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to ATL 40, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 26-A.Williams to 50 for 10 yards (26-D.Key).