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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 17 at the 76

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(12:38) 13-B.Pinion punts 59 yards to DEN 17, Center-49-L.McCullough. 19-M.Mims to DEN 23 for 6 yards (26-A.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.89 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 76, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 34, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model