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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 18 at the 78

Atlanta Falcons 6 – Denver Broncos 31

What Actually Happened

(11:25) 13-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to DEN 27, Center-49-L.McCullough. 19-M.Mims ran ob at DEN 41 for 14 yards (51-D.Malone; 0-L.Carter).

The Three Options

GO -2.57 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.05 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 78, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 35, worth -1.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model