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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 38

Denver Broncos 21 – Atlanta Falcons 6

What Actually Happened

(12:12) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short middle to 84-L.Humphrey (3-J.Bates). The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 84-L.Humphrey to ATL 29 for 9 yards (3-J.Bates; 35-N.Brooks). FUMBLES (3-J.Bates), and recovers at ATL 30.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.69 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 38, worth -2.09 EP
KICK -0.21 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 47, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model