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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 43

Denver Broncos 28 – Atlanta Falcons 6

What Actually Happened

(5:44) 9-R.Dixon punts 37 yards to ATL 6, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-1-T.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.70 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 43, worth -2.07 EP
KICK -0.62 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model