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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 70

Denver Broncos 7 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(:11) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to ATL 19, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 26-A.Williams to ATL 31 for 12 yards (48-M.Fraboni; 34-J.Skinner). PENALTY on ATL-51-D.Malone, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 31.

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.31 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 70, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 28, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model