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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 67

Atlanta Falcons 6 – Denver Broncos 21

What Actually Happened

(13:53) 13-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to DEN 18, Center-49-L.McCullough. 19-M.Mims pushed ob at ATL 45 for 37 yards (55-K.Elliss).

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.10 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 67, worth -3.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 25, worth -1.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model