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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 32

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(2:53) 6-Y.Koo 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.05 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 32, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 42, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model