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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 18 at the 46

Atlanta Falcons 6 – Denver Broncos 38

What Actually Happened

(5:06) 13-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to DEN 4, impetus ends at DEN 1, Center-49-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-49-L.McCullough.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.13 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 46, worth -2.11 EP
KICK -0.65 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 13, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model