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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 17 at the 22

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(1:37) 6-Y.Koo 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.75 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 22, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 32, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model