4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
NYG Away

New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Dave Canales
Sunday 2024-11-10 · 09:30 Allianz Arena, Munich DE ☀️ Clear Spread -6.5 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

NYG
59.8%
CAR
40.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • CAR offense: -0.167 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • CAR defense: +0.145 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • NYG crossing 6 time zone(s)
  • NYG offense: -0.029 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • QB edge to CAR: Andy Dalton (CAR) -0.085 vs Daniel Jones (NYG) -0.154 EPA/dropback (CAR starting Andy Dalton in place of Bryce Young)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 25
–
CAR 21
Projected margin: NYG by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

NYG

Bryce Ford-Wheaton WR Out Achilles
Darius Slayton WR Out Concussion
Jason Pinnock S Questionable Abdomen
Matthew Adams LB Questionable Calf
Graham Gano K Questionable Right Hamstring
Darius Muasau LB Questionable Hamstring

CAR

Ikem Ekwonu T Out Ankle
Adam Thielen WR Out Hamstring
Jammie Robinson S Doubtful Knee
Jonathon Brooks RB Questionable Knee
Jadeveon Clowney LB Questionable Knee
Jordan Fuller S Questionable Hamstring
Lonnie Johnson S Questionable Quadricep
Tommy Tremble TE Questionable Back
D.J. Wonnum LB Questionable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 17
–
CAR 20

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:54 TD CAR (7:54) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 0-J.Sanders for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – CAR 6
  • Q2 15:00 FG CAR (15:00) 4-E.Pineiro 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. NYG 0 – CAR 10
  • Q3 09:03 TD NYG (9:03) 29-T.Tracy left tackle for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – CAR 10
  • Q3 03:37 TD CAR (3:37) 30-C.Hubbard left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 7 – CAR 16
  • Q4 08:39 TD NYG (8:39) 75-J.Ezeudu reported in as eligible. 8-D.Jones left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 13 – CAR 17
  • Q4 00:09 FG NYG (:09) 9-G.Gano 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. NYG 17 – CAR 17
  • Q5 07:56 FG CAR (7:56) 4-E.Pineiro 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. NYG 17 – CAR 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 4 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (13:03) 10-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to NYG 17, Center-44-J.Jansen. 87-I.Smith-Marsette to NYG 17 for no gain (32-L.Johnson).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 13 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 52%

    (11:55) 6-J.Gillan punts 33 yards to CAR 10, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 3 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 32%

    (5:48) 6-J.Gillan punts 42 yards to CAR 9, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 3-R.Blackshear MUFFS catch, and recovers at CAR 9.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 8 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 71%

    (15:00) 4-E.Pineiro 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 4 at the 25
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 88%

    (11:49) 9-G.Gano 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (10:33) 10-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to NYG 24, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 87-I.Smith-Marsette. Penalty on CAR-84-F.Franks, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on NYG-87-I.Smith-Marsette, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on NYG-87-I.Smith-Marsette, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 9 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (7:11) 6-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to CAR 13, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 83-D.Moore to CAR 32 for 19 yards (49-M.Adams). PENALTY on CAR-42-S.Franklin, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at CAR 19.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 4 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (5:36) 10-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to NYG 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 87-I.Smith-Marsette to NYG 36 for 7 yards (53-C.Cherelus).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 9 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 29%

    (:27) 10-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to NYG 9, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-32-L.Johnson.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 12 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:41) 6-J.Gillan punts 42 yards to CAR 34, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 3-R.Blackshear to CAR 47 for 13 yards (47-T.Summers; 24-D.Belton).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 7 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 34%

    (:43) 10-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to NYG 4, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-42-S.Franklin.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 2 at the 83 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (4:40) 10-J.Hekker punts 54 yards to NYG 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 87-I.Smith-Marsette to NYG 39 for 10 yards (49-J.Rhattigan).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 9 at the 60 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (3:34) 6-J.Gillan punts 41 yards to CAR 19, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 68 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:30) 10-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to NYG 21, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 87-I.Smith-Marsette.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 7 at the 24 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 89%

    (:09) 9-G.Gano 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.