Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 12 at the 76

New York Giants 7 – Carolina Panthers 17

(1:41) 6-J.Gillan punts 42 yards to CAR 34, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 3-R.Blackshear to CAR 47 for 13 yards (47-T.Summers; 24-D.Belton).

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.76 EP
65% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model