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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 84

Carolina Panthers 10 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(5:36) 10-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to NYG 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 87-I.Smith-Marsette to NYG 36 for 7 yards (53-C.Cherelus).

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.78 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 84, worth -4.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.06 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 42, worth -2.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model