Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 68

Carolina Panthers 17 – New York Giants 14

(2:30) 10-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to NYG 21, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 87-I.Smith-Marsette.

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +0.53 EP
67% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 68, worth -3.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model