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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 51

New York Giants 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:48) 6-J.Gillan punts 42 yards to CAR 9, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 3-R.Blackshear MUFFS catch, and recovers at CAR 9.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.49 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.98 EP
KICK -1.63 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.99 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP