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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 50

Carolina Panthers 17 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(:43) 10-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to NYG 4, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-42-S.Franklin.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.05 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 50, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.17 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 14, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model