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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 13 at the 43

New York Giants 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:55) 6-J.Gillan punts 33 yards to CAR 10, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.84 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -0.99 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.14 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.21 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model