Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 67

Carolina Panthers 10 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(10:33) 10-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to NYG 24, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 87-I.Smith-Marsette. Penalty on CAR-84-F.Franks, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on NYG-87-I.Smith-Marsette, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on NYG-87-I.Smith-Marsette, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting.

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.47 EP
67% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 67, worth -3.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model