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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 66

Carolina Panthers 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(13:03) 10-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to NYG 17, Center-44-J.Jansen. 87-I.Smith-Marsette to NYG 17 for no gain (32-L.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.61 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 66, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 24, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model