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HC Brian Callahan
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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2024-10-20 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US ☀️ Clear Spread 9.5 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

TEN
22.5%
BUF
77.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.146 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • BUF offense: +0.153 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Josh Allen (BUF): +0.171 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TEN defense: -0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TEN 16
–
BUF 26
Projected margin: BUF by 10 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

TEN

Treylon Burks WR Out Knee
Keondre Coburn DT Out Knee
Tyjae Spears RB Out Hamstring
Cedric Gray LB Out Shoulder
L'Jarius Sneed CB Questionable Quadricep
Will Levis QB Questionable Right Shoulder

BUF

Darrynton Evans RB Doubtful Hamstring
Mike Edwards S Questionable Illness
Ray Davis RB Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 10
–
BUF 34

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:00 FG TEN (3:00) 6-N.Folk 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. TEN 3 – BUF 0
  • Q2 11:38 TD TEN (11:38) 11-M.Rudolph pass short right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 9 – BUF 0
  • Q2 10:08 TD BUF (10:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-J.Cook right guard for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 10 – BUF 6
  • Q3 10:28 TD BUF (10:28) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 18-A.Cooper for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 8 yds. into end zone. TEN 10 – BUF 13
  • Q3 04:15 FG BUF (4:15) 2-T.Bass 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. TEN 10 – BUF 17
  • Q4 15:00 TD BUF (15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 26-Ty.Johnson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: TEN-56-K.Murray has returned to the game. TEN 10 – BUF 23
  • Q4 09:29 FG BUF (9:29) 2-T.Bass 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. TEN 10 – BUF 27
  • Q4 02:00 TD BUF (2:00) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 22-R.Davis right tackle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 10 – BUF 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (13:42) 8-S.Martin punts 46 yards to TEN 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 23 for 8 yards (54-B.Spector). PENALTY on TEN-23-T.Avery, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at TEN 15.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 4 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (11:25) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 60 yards to BUF 15, Center-46-M.Cox. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 27 for 12 yards (57-L.Gifford).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 10 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (10:07) 8-S.Martin punts 41 yards to TEN 32, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 3 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (3:00) 6-N.Folk 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (1:29) 8-S.Martin punts 39 yards to TEN 27, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 35 for 8 yards (69-R.Ferguson, 85-Q.Morris). PENALTY on TEN-52-J.Williams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 35.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 18 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 41%

    (6:16) 8-S.Martin punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 16 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (2:55) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 62 yards to BUF 12, Center-46-M.Cox. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 24 for 12 yards (57-L.Gifford).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 1 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (:54) 8-S.Martin punts 27 yards to TEN 40, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 2 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (12:59) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to TEN 41 for -3 yards (90-D.Carter, 9-T.Rapp).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 15 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (8:15) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 43 yards to BUF 15, Center-46-M.Cox. 29-B.Codrington ran ob at BUF 26 for 11 yards (46-M.Cox).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 7 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 97%

    (4:15) 2-T.Bass 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 16 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (3:00) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 53 yards to BUF 30, Center-46-M.Cox. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 44 for 14 yards (85-C.Okonkwo).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (14:38) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 48 yards to BUF 22, Center-46-M.Cox. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 29 for 7 yards (57-L.Gifford, 44-M.Brown).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 3 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 96%

    (9:29) 2-T.Bass 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 49%

    (7:39) 11-M.Rudolph right guard to BUF 39 for 2 yards (9-T.Rapp).