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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 75

Tennessee Titans 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(11:25) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 60 yards to BUF 15, Center-46-M.Cox. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 27 for 12 yards (57-L.Gifford).

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +0.92 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 75, worth -4.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.95 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 32, worth -1.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model