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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 41

Tennessee Titans 10 – Buffalo Bills 27

What Actually Happened

(7:39) 11-M.Rudolph right guard to BUF 39 for 2 yards (9-T.Rapp).

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.18 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 41, worth -1.89 EP
KICK -0.44 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model