Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 16 at the 74

Tennessee Titans 10 – Buffalo Bills 7

(2:55) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 62 yards to BUF 12, Center-46-M.Cox. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 24 for 12 yards (57-L.Gifford).

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.76 EP
73% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 74, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model