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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 73

Buffalo Bills 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(10:07) 8-S.Martin punts 41 yards to TEN 32, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.27 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 73, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 31, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model