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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 67

Buffalo Bills 7 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(:54) 8-S.Martin punts 27 yards to TEN 40, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.27 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 67, worth -3.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 25, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP