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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 7

Tennessee Titans 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(3:00) 6-N.Folk 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +2.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.84 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 7, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.02 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.08 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP