4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 18 at the 44

Buffalo Bills 7 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(6:16) 8-S.Martin punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.41 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 44, worth -1.89 EP
KICK -0.59 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model