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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 10

Buffalo Bills 14 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(4:15) 2-T.Bass 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +2.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.17 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 10, worth +0.14 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP