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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 61

Buffalo Bills 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:42) 8-S.Martin punts 46 yards to TEN 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 23 for 8 yards (54-B.Spector). PENALTY on TEN-23-T.Avery, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at TEN 15.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.71 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 61, worth -3.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 20, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP