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Las Vegas Raiders

HC Antonio Pierce
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2024-10-20 · 16:05 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

LV
32.0%
LA
68.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.083 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • LA defense: +0.134 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to LA: Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.115 vs Aidan O'Connell (LV) -0.033 EPA/dropback
  • LA on 7 more days rest than LV
  • LA offense: +0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

LV 20
–
LA 26
Projected margin: LA by 6 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

LV

Tommy Eichenberg LB Out Quadricep
Kana'i Mauga LB Out Knee
Dylan Parham G Out Foot
Jakobi Meyers WR Doubtful Ankle
Adam Butler DT Questionable Knee
John Jenkins DT Questionable Illness
Zamir White RB Questionable Groin

LA

Cooper Kupp WR Questionable Ankle
Joseph Noteboom T Questionable Ankle
Jordan Whittington WR Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 15
–
LA 20

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 14:08 FG LV (14:08) 2-D.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 3 – LA 0
  • Q2 03:05 TD LA (3:05) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams left guard for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 3 – LA 6
  • Q2 01:23 TD LA (1:23) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew sacked at LV 37 for -7 yards (14-C.Durant). FUMBLES (14-C.Durant) [14-C.Durant], RECOVERED by LA-3-K.Curl at LV 33. 3-K.Curl for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 3 – LA 13
  • Q2 00:04 FG LV (:04) 2-D.Carlson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 6 – LA 14
  • Q3 07:33 TD LA (7:33) 23-K.Williams left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 6 – LA 20
  • Q3 02:29 FG LV (2:29) 2-D.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 9 – LA 20
  • Q4 14:55 FG LV (14:55) 2-D.Carlson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 12 – LA 20
  • Q4 02:50 FG LV (2:50) 2-D.Carlson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 15 – LA 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 4 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 34%

    (12:14) 6-A.Cole punts 40 yards to LA 11, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 3 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 29%

    (8:43) 42-E.Evans punts 45 yards to LV 8, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 81-A.Bachman.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 11 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (4:39) 6-A.Cole punts 46 yards to LA 24, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 19 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (2:40) 42-E.Evans punts 41 yards to LV 24, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 5 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 92%

    (14:08) 2-D.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 39%

    (10:57) 23-K.Williams up the middle to LV 49 for no gain (39-N.Hobbs).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 7 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 41%

    (9:21) 6-A.Cole punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.59 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (7:12) 42-E.Evans punts 43 yards to LV 28, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 81-A.Bachman.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (14:09) 42-E.Evans punts 52 yards to LV 12, Center-47-A.Ward. 19-D.Turner to LV 32 for 20 yards (20-R.Rivers). PENALTY on LV-25-D.Richardson, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at LV 19.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 8 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (12:37) 6-A.Cole punts 56 yards to LA 32, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 19-X.Smith to LA 40 for 8 yards (50-J.Bobenmoyer).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 5 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 51%

    (9:30) 42-E.Evans punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-47-A.Ward, Touchback.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 7 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 92%

    (2:29) 2-D.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 5 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 97%

    (14:55) 2-D.Carlson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 12 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 95%

    (10:15) 16-J.Karty 35 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 56%

    (6:29) (Shotgun) 22-A.Mattison up the middle to LA 40 for 2 yards (37-Q.Lake).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 9 at the 9 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (2:50) 2-D.Carlson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 47 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 44%

    (1:46) 42-E.Evans punts 36 yards to LV 11, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 19-D.Turner.