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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 12 at the 16

Los Angeles Rams 20 – Las Vegas Raiders 12

What Actually Happened

(10:15) 16-J.Karty 35 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.81 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 16, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model