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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 9

Las Vegas Raiders 9 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 2-D.Carlson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +2.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.85 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 9, worth +0.30 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP