4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 88

Las Vegas Raiders 6 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(12:37) 6-A.Cole punts 56 yards to LA 32, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 19-X.Smith to LA 40 for 8 yards (50-J.Bobenmoyer).

The Three Options

GO -2.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.64 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 88, worth -5.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.80 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 46, worth -2.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model