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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 53

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(8:43) 42-E.Evans punts 45 yards to LV 8, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 81-A.Bachman.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.08 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 53, worth -2.72 EP
KICK -1.15 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP