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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 47

Los Angeles Rams 20 – Las Vegas Raiders 15

What Actually Happened

(1:46) 42-E.Evans punts 36 yards to LV 11, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 19-D.Turner.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +0.64 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 47, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.47 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 13, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP