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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 44

Los Angeles Rams 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 6

What Actually Happened

(9:30) 42-E.Evans punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-47-A.Ward, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.47 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 44, worth -2.23 EP
KICK -0.42 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP