4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 64

Los Angeles Rams 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 6

What Actually Happened

(14:09) 42-E.Evans punts 52 yards to LV 12, Center-47-A.Ward. 19-D.Turner to LV 32 for 20 yards (20-R.Rivers). PENALTY on LV-25-D.Richardson, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at LV 19.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.34 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 64, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 22, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model