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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 51

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(12:14) 6-A.Cole punts 40 yards to LA 11, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.75 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 51, worth -3.24 EP
KICK -1.78 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.09 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -3.24 EP
PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP