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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 70

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(4:39) 6-A.Cole punts 46 yards to LA 24, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.77 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 70, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 28, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model