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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
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DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2024-10-13 · 16:25 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.5 O/U 52.5

Win Probability

DET
58.1%
DAL
41.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: +0.160 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • DAL defense: +0.086 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • DAL offense: +0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • DET on 6 more days rest than DAL
  • DET defense: +0.109 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to DET: Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.105 vs Jared Goff (DET) +0.149 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

DET 27
–
DAL 24
Projected margin: DET by 3 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

DET

Christian Mahogany G Out Illness

DAL

Eric Kendricks LB Out Calf
Micah Parsons DE Out Ankle
Daron Bland CB Questionable Foot
Nick Vigil LB Questionable Foot
Caelen Carson CB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 47
–
DAL 9

Prediction missed by 35 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:24 FG DAL (11:24) 17-B.Aubrey 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DET 0 – DAL 3
  • Q1 09:13 TD DET (9:13) 5-D.Montgomery left guard for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – DAL 3
  • Q2 13:31 FG DET (13:31) 39-J.Bates 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 10 – DAL 3
  • Q2 11:49 TD DET (11:49) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 87-S.LaPorta for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 16 – DAL 3
  • Q2 04:01 FG DET (4:01) 39-J.Bates 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 20 – DAL 3
  • Q2 00:40 TD DET (:40) 68-T.Decker and 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 5-D.Montgomery right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 26 – DAL 3
  • Q2 00:12 FG DAL (:12) 17-B.Aubrey 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DET 27 – DAL 6
  • Q3 12:42 TD DET (12:42) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 9-J.Williams for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 33 – DAL 6
  • Q3 08:52 FG DAL (8:52) 17-B.Aubrey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DET 34 – DAL 9
  • Q3 05:29 FG DET (5:29) 39-J.Bates 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 37 – DAL 9
  • Q4 14:15 FG DET (14:15) 39-J.Bates 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 40 – DAL 9
  • Q4 13:22 TD DET (13:22) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DET-14-A.St. Brown, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. DET 46 – DAL 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 8 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 95%

    (11:24) 17-B.Aubrey 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 10 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 91%

    (13:31) 39-J.Bates 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:42) 5-B.Anger punts 38 yards to DET 32, Center-44-T.Sieg, downed by DAL-40-H.Luepke. PENALTY on DAL-29-C.Goodwin, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at DET 32.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 20 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (10:27) 5-B.Anger punts 55 yards to DET 25, Center-44-T.Sieg. 11-K.Raymond to DET 31 for 6 yards (29-C.Goodwin).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 2 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 88%

    (6:45) 26-J.Gibbs left end to DAL 23 for 2 yards (2-J.Lewis; 55-C.Lawson).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 17 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 82%

    (4:01) 39-J.Bates 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64%

    (2:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 9-K.Turpin (0-T.Arnold) [97-A.Hutchinson].

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 9 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 83%

    (:12) 17-B.Aubrey 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 5 at the 57
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (10:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to DET 38 for 19 yards (21-A.Robertson; 31-K.Joseph).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 12 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 78%

    (8:52) 17-B.Aubrey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 15 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 95%

    (5:29) 39-J.Bates 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 13 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 95%

    (14:15) 39-J.Bates 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 6 at the 68
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (13:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle intended for 83-J.Brooks INTERCEPTED by 32-B.Branch at DET 49. 32-B.Branch to DAL 4 for 47 yards (83-J.Brooks).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (8:07) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short right intended for 9-K.Turpin INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Joseph at DET -5. Touchback.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 3 at the 31 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 80%

    (4:28) (Shotgun) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 2-H.Hooker sacked at DAL 40 for -9 yards (52-K.Henry).